Folklore Winter Weather Forecast

Dewayne Trail’s Annual WINTER WEATHER FORECAST

Our 2009-2010 Winter - Many people consider winter to be that period from late October (when we have our first killing frost) through mid March (when new growth begins the following spring). According to the calendar, winter begins on December 21^st of this year, and it will end on March 19^th of the coming year. (Left Photo: Dewayne Trail doing the Action Line radio show “live” from Kelton’s Hardware and Pet)

The 1^st Killing Frost - Each year from early to mid October, Rutherford County residents usually see a few light frosts. The average date of the first killing frost in Rutherford County is October 22. Statistically, there is only a 10% chance of it occurring before the second week in October or after the first week in November. Weather lore suggests that an early killing frost is a sign of bad winter weather.

Weather Specialists Verses Mother Nature

Weather information is provided by the dedicated employees of our National Weather Service, Regional Weather Centers, and Local News Stations. We’re fortunate to have these sources for weather information, and we should rely on the accurate and timely information they provide. Still, ordinary folks were making weather predictions long before we put weather specialists and their current network of sophisticated equipment together. Years ago, people relied on “signs from nature” to show the kind of weather for various seasons of the year. The thinking was “Who better than Mother Nature” to show what she had in store.

Winter “Weather Lore”

Weather lore has been handed down from one generation to another, and the lore predictions for winter weather seem as popular today as they were years ago. Some lore predictions seem to contradict themselves, but weather patterns do differ from one area to another. The winter weather lore prediction which seems most popular, regardless of where people live, is that dealing with the Banded Woolly Worm. Sometimes called a woolly bear or fuzzy bear in official references, it is the larval stage of an Isabella Tiger Moth. The banded woolly worm has a black hair coat on both ends of its body and a rust-orange center band. The adult stage of the banded woolly worm is a very beautiful, yellow colored moth. (Left Photo: an actual Rutherford County wooly worm that was a special guest on the WGNS Action Line radio broadcast)

NOTE: Visit the following websites for colorful photos and additional information:

http://www3.islandtelecom.com/~oehlkew/spisabel.htm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pyrrharctia_isabella

Woolly Worm Lore

Weather lore suggests that winter will be bad if:

- Woolly worms have heavy hair coats.

- Lots of them are seen crawling around.

- Their movement is unusually slow.

- You see them crawling before the first frost.

- Their black bands are wider than the rust-orange band separating them.

Winter Snow

Try counting the number of ground fogs in August. Weather lore suggests there will be as many snows during winter as there were fogs in August.

Winter Weather Lore and the Persimmon

Check the seed of a persimmon after a fall frost. Cut into the seed from the narrow side, and look at the kernel. See if you can recognize the shape of a spoon, fork, or knife.

If the kernel is shaped like a . . .

spoon, look for a harsh winter with heavy, wet snow.

fork, look for a mild winter with light, powdery snow.

knife, look for a cold, icy winter with cutting winds

Cold Winter Weather

Weather lore suggests winter will be bad if:

- Animals have thicker coats of hair or fur.

- Squirrels build their nests low in trees and gather nuts early.

- Ants build their mounds high.

- Larger numbers of spiders are seen in the fall.

- A heavy crop of berries are found on holly and dogwood trees.

- Birds are seen migrating early or huddling on the ground.

- You hear lots of rolling thunder during late fall.

- Leaves shed before changing color.

- Chimney smoke flows toward the ground.

- The breastbone of a turkey cooked in the fall is purple or dark blue. (If it is white,

a mild winter is in store.)

Other Weather Lore Predictions

- Count the number of cricket chirps in a 14-second period and add 40; the resulting

number will be within one degree of the actual air temperature.

- Three months after the first katydids begin to sing, the first killing frost will come.

- The first 12 days after Christmas indicate what each of the 12 months in the next

year will be like.

- Cows and deer stand facing west if bad weather is approaching, east when weather

is good.

How Weather Lore Predictions Affect the Coming Winter

- A late killing frost suggests winter will not be bad.

- Average corn husk thickness suggests winter will not be bad.

- Fewer spiders sightings in the fall suggests winter will not be bad.

- A poor berry crop on hollies suggests winter will not be bad.

- The spoon shape seen in the kernel of a persimmon seed (coupled with a few fog sightings in August) suggests there will be some winter snow.

- Woolly worms don’t seem to have thick hair coats, and they have more rust-orange than black color.

2009-2010 Winter Weather Forecast

Weather lore predictors suggest we’re going to have a relatively mild winter. No doubt, there will be some cold weather to include a few scattered days with below freezing temperatures and a few light snows; however, average winter temperatures will prevail.

Bottom Line: Expect a mild winter with temperatures that are normal for Rutherford County.