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Folklore Forecast


2008-2009 MILD WINTER WITH AVERAGE TEMPERATURES

image Dewayne Trail began his weekly call-in radio program answering lawn and garden questions on WGNS back in 1991. Seventeen years ago he started the popular FOLKLORE WINTER FORECAST. Listeners would help Dewayne track the fogs in August, when did the katydids first chirp, what color are the wooly worms and more. Dewayne is the director of the Rutherford County UT-TSU Agricultural Extension Service. It is located at 315 John Rice Boulevard, just down from Sam’s Club. Helping with the weekly radio show that is broadcast "live" from Kelton’s Lawn and Garden at 2870 Old Fort Parkway. Local agents Mitchell Mote and Anthony Tuggle along with Rutherford County Master Gardeners answer listener’s questions every week. (left photo: During the broadcast from Kelton’s, Dewayne looks at the corn husk and put this information into a collection of data that brings him to the conclusion: a mild winter with average temperatures. 

1st Killing Frost - The average date of the first killing frost in Rutherford County is October 22. Statistically, there is only a 10% chance of it occurring before the second week in October or after the first week in November. Weather lore suggests that an early killing frost is a sign of bad winter weather.

2008-2009 Winter - Many people consider winter to be that period from late October (when we have our first killing frost) through mid March (when new growth begins due to sunny days and warmer temperatures). Officially, our 2008-2009 winter will begin on December 21 with December 22 being the first full day of winter. Our winter will end on March 19 of 2009.

The National Weather Service Verses Mother Nature

When it comes to winter weather, we really should rely on dedicated employees at the National Weather Service, regional weather centers, and local news stations to provide us with accurate, timely weather information. However, ordinary folks were making weather predictions long before we put weather specialists and their current network of sophisticated equipment together. Years ago, people relied on signs from “Mother Nature” to show the kind of weather she had in store for various seasons of the year.

Winter “Weather Lore”

Weather lore has been handed down from one generation to another, and the lore predictions for winter weather seem as popular today as they were years ago. Some lore predictions seem to contradict themselves, but weather patterns do differ from one area to another. The winter weather lore prediction which seems most popular, regardless of where people live, is that dealing with the woolly worm. Sometimes called a woolly bear or fuzzy bear in official references, it is the larval stage of an Isabella Tiger Moth. The woolly worm has a black hair coat on both ends and a center band that is rust-orange

in color.

Woolly Worm Lore

image Weather lore suggests that winter will be bad if:

- Woolly worms have heavy hair coats.

- Lots of them are seen crawling around.

- Their movement is unusually slow.

- You see them crawling before the first frost.

- Their black bands are wider than the rust-orange band separating them.

Winter Snow

Try counting the number of ground fogs in August. Weather lore suggests there will be as many snows during winter as there were fogs in August.

Cold Winter Weather

Weather lore suggests winter will be bad if:

- Animals have thicker coats of hair or fur.

- Squirrels build their nests low in trees and gather nuts early.

- Ants build their mounds high.

- Larger numbers of spiders are seen in the fall.

- A heavy crop of berries are found on holly and dogwood trees.

- Birds are seen migrating early or huddling on the ground.

- You hear lots of rolling thunder during late fall.

- Leaves shed before changing color.

- Chimney smoke flows toward the ground.

- The breastbone of a turkey cooked in the fall is purple or dark blue. (If it is white,

a mild winter is in store.)

Winter Weather Lore and the Persimmon

image Check the seed of a persimmon after a fall frost. Cut into the seed from the narrow side, and look at the kernel. See if you can recognize the shape of a spoon, fork, or knife. (Photo: this is the persimmon Dewayne cut open on the radio show 10/16/08)

If the kernel is shaped like a . . .

spoon, look for a harsh winter with heavy, wet snow.

fork, look for a mild winter with light, powdery snow.

knife, look for a cold, icy winter with cutting winds

Other Weather Lore Predictions

- Count the number of cricket chirps in a 14-second period and add 40; the resulting

number will be within one degree of the actual air temperature.

- Three months after the first katydids begin to sing, the first killing frost will come.

- The first 12 days after Christmas indicate what each of the 12 months in the next

year will be like.

- Cows and deer stand facing west if bad weather is approaching, east when weather

is good.

How Weather Lore Predictions Affect the Coming Winter

- A late killing frost suggests winter will not be bad.

- Average corn husk thickness suggests winter will not be bad.

- Fewer spiders sightings in the fall suggests winter will not be bad.

- A poor berry crop on hollies suggests winter will not be bad.

- The spoon shape seen in the kernel of a persimmon seed (coupled with a few fog sightings in August) suggests there will be some winter snow.

- Only a few woolly worms have been seen crawling before the first frost.

2008-2009 Weather Forecast

image Weather lore predictors suggest we’re going to have a relatively mild winter! No doubt, there will be some cold weather to include a few scattered days with below freezing temperatures and a few light snows; however, average winter temperatures will prevail. (Photo: Dewayne does the berry test) Woops, not many berries this year. Hardly anyone has seen wooly worms. There were only a few fogs in August. Hmmm–what is your forecast Dewayne?

I believe, as weather lore predictors suggest, that we are going to have a mild winter with average temperatures.

Listen to the Lawn and Garden radio show on the WGNS Good Neighbor network every Thursday morning (8:10-9:00AM) from Kelton’s Lawn and Garden. Tune to FM 100.5;  FM 101.9;  AM 1450;  over-the-air TV 11; worldwide on the internet at www.WGNSradio.com