MURFREESBORO, Tenn. (Rutherford Weather) – Forecast confidence is nearly absolute for a major winter storm moving through Middle Tennessee this weekend. Rutherford Weather’s Bryan Barrett and National Weather Service (NWS) Nashville Meteorologist Alex Sizemore warned that a major winter storm is a "slam dunk" for the region, with the forecast now trending toward a dangerous and prolonged icing event.
A Complicated "Long Duration" Event
While earlier forecasts leaned more toward snow, warmer air moving in aloft has turned Rutherford County into a meteorological "battle zone." Meteorologists are now tracking a long-duration system that could last 36 to 48 hours, beginning as early as Friday evening or early Saturday morning.
The greatest concern is the transition of precipitation. While the storm may start as snow, models show a warm air trough pushing northward, which would bring sleet and freezing rain to the Murfreesboro area by midday Saturday.
"Starts off as snow, transitions to sleet or freezing rain, then back to snow," said Alex Sizemore. "This is one of the most complicated winter weather forecasting scenarios you can imagine."
Why the Ice Threat Matters
Forecasters are specifically watching for freezing rain, which can adhere to power lines and tree limbs. Even a quarter-inch of ice can add thousands of pounds of pressure to infrastructure, significantly increasing the risk of widespread power outages.
While areas north of I-40 have a 40% to 70% chance of seeing six inches of snow or more, Rutherford County remains on the "tight gradient" where a fraction of a degree will determine if the county sees heavy snow or heavy ice.
The "Polar Ice Box" Opens
Regardless of the precipitation type, a massive Arctic high-pressure system will move in Sunday night. Barrett describes this as "opening the polar ice box."
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Single-Digit Temperatures: Lows will plummet into the single digits Monday and Tuesday mornings.
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Prolonged Freeze: Temperatures are not expected to rise above freezing until Wednesday afternoon, meaning any ice or snow on the ground will remain a hazard for days.
Resources & Local Warming Centers
With life-threatening cold arriving, the Coldest Nights program and other local partners have activated. These shelters typically open when temperatures drop below 32°F.
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Men’s Shelter: First Baptist Church (200 E. Main St.) — Check-in typically begins at 7:00 PM; supper served at 6:00 PM.
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Women’s Shelter: St. Paul’s Episcopal Church (116 N. Academy St.) — Check-in typically begins at 7:00 PM.
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Daytime Warming: The Journey Home (308 W. Castle St.) provides a warm space from 8:00 AM to 3:00 PM.
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Emergency Contact: Dial 211 for current shelter availability or call the Rutherford County EMA at 615-898-7764.
Stay Updated with Rutherford Weather
Rutherford Weather will continue to track the storm's progression, the shifting "ice line," and local impacts. Because of the complexity of this "battle zone" forecast, we will provide updates as new high-resolution data arrives.
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