Nashville National Weather Service Meteorologist Ryan Husted gives a briefing ahead of today's (Wednesday, 3-11-26) severe weather potential.
Severe Weather Outlook
-
Overall Threat: There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms across all of Middle Tennessee throughout this afternoon and evening.
-
Primary Hazard: Damaging winds are the main threat today.
-
Other Potential Hazards:
-
Tornadoes: A few tornadoes cannot be ruled out. There is currently a 2% to 4% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of any point in the region.
-
Hail: Large hail is possible, with some reports potentially reaching the size of quarters, half-dollars, or even ping pong balls.
-
Flash Flooding: While widespread significant flooding is not expected, heavy downpours could lead to isolated street flooding and high water at low-water crossings.
-
Forecast Uncertainty
Meteorologists are rooting for continued cloud cover, as this would decrease atmospheric instability and potentially weaken the storms as they move into Middle Tennessee. There's a possibility of two separate lines of storms, or even isolated "supercellular" storms ahead of the main line.
Looking Ahead
-
Thursday: Much cooler and showery.
-
Weekend: Nice weather expected Saturday, with more storms possible on Sunday.
-
Early Next Week: A significant cold snap is coming, with lows Monday night and Tuesday morning dropping into the low-to-mid 20s (21°F - 26°F).
PREVIOUSLY REPORTED
- What This Story Is About: Rutherford County is under a Level 2 "slight risk" for severe weather this Wednesday, with primary threats including damaging winds and the potential for isolated tornadoes.
- Why It Matters: The timing of the most intense storm activity aligns with the lunchtime and afternoon commute, posing a significant safety risk for drivers and residents across Middle Tennessee.
- What Happens Next: Local emergency officials are monitoring the system closely, and residents are urged to have multiple ways to receive weather alerts throughout Wednesday afternoon.
- For Context: This system is moving through during a period of temperature fluctuations, following a brief warm-up before a projected cold snap hits the region next week.
MURFREESBORO, Tenn. (WGNS) — Rutherford County is under a Level 2 "slight risk" for severe weather this Wednesday from the Storm Prediction Center as a volatile storm system approaches Middle Tennessee. The National Weather Service is forecasting damaging winds and isolated tornadoes are the primary threats to the mid-state.
Timing and Local Impact
While light showers may begin as early as Tuesday evening, the main threat arrives Wednesday afternoon. Residents should prepare for a broken line of storms, with the most intense activity expected during the evening commute.
-
Hazardous Window: The broad timeframe for severe weather is set between 12:00 PM and 8:00 PM.
-
Critical Hour: Current modeling suggests the highest impact for Murfreesboro and surrounding areas will occur between 3:00 PM and 6:00 PM. THIS COULD CHANGE so be weather aware.
-
Cell Development: Meteorologists are closely monitoring discrete storm cells that may form ahead of the main line, as these pose a specific risk for rotating winds.
Threat Assessment
The Storm Prediction Center currently lists a 15% probability for damaging straight-line winds and a 2% probability for tornado development within the county.
Following Wednesday's storms, a brief warm-up will precede a sharp temperature drop next week, bringing a return of late-winter chill to the region.
