Rough weather is expected for the mid-state. Severe weather is possible anytime through Tuesday. However, a cold front will sweep through overnight Monday into Tuesday and it's likely to bring intense storms.
By late afternoon and early evening Monday...Middle Tennessee will be well within the warm sector of this system. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible during this time frame and any of these storms could become severe. Damaging wind gusts and one or two tornadoes are not out of the question.
By midnight Monday night we will be turning our focus to the west. An intense line of showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing and moving towards the mid-state. As the line crosses the Tennessee River...the potential will exist for damaging wind gusts...hail... tornadoes and flash flooding. While the line is expected to weaken slightly with time...these same severe weather threats will be possible as far east as the Cumberland Plateau by daybreak Tuesday.
Not to be left out...as the surface low ramps up and moves closer to the state Monday...gradient winds will begin to strengthen. This means that winds outside any thunderstorms that develop could be as strong as 15-25 mph sustained with gusts as high as 35 to 40 mph. These are likely to start around noon on Monday and last through Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Please keep in mind that the bulk of this severe weather will be during the overnight hours. Nocturnal tornadoes are one of the biggest killers in middle Tennessee. Stay weather aware throughout Monday night and Tuesday and have a plan to shelter in place before severe weather arrives.