Running down Kentucky Derby 149

May 02, 2023 at 08:19 pm by Danny Brewer

  Life can often be about answering questions. Does my boss approve of my work? How much is that doggy in the window? Will that girl give me the time of day? And what in the world is that smell? But let’s focus on that eternal question we all want to answer. Who is going to win the Kentucky Derby? Here is a quick rundown on the entrants for the 149th Run for the Roses with their post position, morning line, and a thought on each.


  • Hit Show (30-1)- Brad Cox trainee was beaten just a nose in the Wood Memorial but this inside draw will be tough to overcome.
  • Verifying (15-1)- Another Brad Cox horse that finished a close second in his final prep race (Blue Grass Stakes). Churchill riding champ Tyler Gafflione has the mount.
  • Two Phil’s (12-1)- Tough running son of Hard Spun won at Churchill last October and seems to always be there at the end. Could hit the board from a tough post draw.
  • Confidence Game (20-1)-Rebel Stakes winner has not run since February 25 but his ability to close makes him a live longshot.
  • Tapit Trice (5-1)- Four wins in a row including an impressive score in the Blue Grass Stakes means this Todd Pletcher trainee is coming in hot.
  • Kingsbarns (12-1)- Perhaps an ideal post draw for a lightly raced and unbeaten colt that wants the early lead. If they leave him alone watch out.
  • Reincarnate (50-1)- A horse that has never been worse than third in seven career starts and has hall-of-fame rider John Velazquez riding at 50-1? Hmmmmmmm
  • Mage (15-1)-Ran nicely in finishing a close second in Florida Derby but will need some of his pappy’s namesake here… Good Magic
  • Skinner (20-1)- This son of Curlin has never won a stakes race but trainer John Shirreffs has pulled a Derby rabbit out of the hat before with Giacomo (2005).
  • Practical Move (10-1)-Two wins in two starts this year and never worse than third in seven career starts makes him the top dog from the West Coast.
  • Disarm (30-1)-Has not won a stakes race but was second in the Louisiana Derby for all-time Churchill-winning trainer Steve Asmussen.
  • Jace’s Road (50-1)- Another Brad Cox horse that has been getting better each time out. Likes to get out front and could press the early pace.
  • Sun Thunder (50-1)-Winless in stakes company, this son of Into Mischief gives Churchill staple Kenny McPeek a shot…a long one but still a shot.
  • Angel of Empire (8-1)-This is the Brad Cox horse that seems to be doing his best running in 2023. Arkansas Derby champ is our top pick here with Flavien Prat riding.
  • Forte (3-1)-Juvenile champ from 2022 has done everything right in 2023 and deserves to be the favorite. If he gets the trip he gives trainer Todd Pletcher Derby win number 3.
  • Raise Cain (50-1)-Gotham Stakes win was very impressive but his Blue Grass Stakes run was mediocre. If he’s there at the end people will be doing his namesake.
  • Derma Sotogake (10-1)-UAE Derby win was very impressive. From this post if he wants the early lead the early pace will be smoking. Japanese-bred wild card.
  • Rocket Can (30-1)-Holy Bull Stakes winner was a little flat in Arkansas Derby but is always competitive. Has a win and a second in two starts at Churchill.
  • Lord Miles (30-1)-Upset winner of the Wood Memorial will need more magic here if he hopes to win. But as we know, ANYTHING can happen.
  • Continuar (50-1)-The other Japanese-bred horse that runs for the roses has a tall hill to climb. It will take a Godzilla-like effort but again…ANYTHING can happen.



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