RUTHERFORD COUNTY, TN - The U.S. housing market has witnessed substantial changes over the past two decades, with certain regions experiencing pronounced booms and busts while others maintain a more stable trajectory. Understanding historical home value stability is crucial for homebuyers and investors alike, particularly during economic fluctuations.

A recent study conducted by Construction Coverage has shed light on the most and least stable housing markets across the country. By analyzing home price trends since 2000, researchers ranked states and major metro areas based on the likelihood of a homebuyer experiencing a price drop greater than 5% after their purchase.

In Rutherford County, part of the Nashville - Murfreesboro - Franklin Metro Statistical Area, the risk of a significant price drop is surprisingly moderate. The study indicates an 18.4% chance of a decline exceeding 5%, less than in some areas but higher than others in Tennessee. Historically, Rutherford County has seen a maximum price drop of 13% over the past 25 years.

Among 219 metro areas surveyed, the Nashville - Murfreesboro - Franklin MSA ranks 56th, placing it among the top 60 most stable urban markets in the U.S. Presently, the median home price in this metro area is $439,739, while Murfreesboro specifically boasts an average home value of $414,947, reflecting a 2.4% increase from the previous year. Over the last 25 years, the region has experienced a significant 217% increase in residential prices.

In contrast, Clarksville, Tennessee, emerges as the least likely area to face a price drop, while Memphis bears the highest risk, with a staggering 43.8% chance of a decline. Notably, the western part of Tennessee appears more susceptible to price fluctuations; Jackson and Memphis recorded the largest drops in Tennessee, with declines of 15.3% and 22.4%, respectively.

Overall, Tennessee proves relatively stable compared to other states, with the largest price drop recorded at 11.9%. This places Tennessee 17th among the top 20 most stable states in the nation. States such as South Dakota, Oklahoma, and Alaska exhibit the least price fluctuation, while Nevada, Georgia, and Michigan experience the most volatility.

Moreover, the average home values in Jackson and Memphis stand at approximately $214,000 and $232,000, respectively, with minor price increases of 3% and 3.1% observed over the past year.

In summary, as the U.S. housing market remains less volatile than the stock market over the last 25 years, certain areas exemplify stability while others are contending with riskier price patterns. The findings by Construction Coverage reveal essential insights for potential buyers and investors aiming to navigate this complex landscape.

MORE: Zillow Average Home Prices (Current)

• Lascassas, TN: $524,988 (Up 4.3%) 
• Eagleville, TN: $517,856 (Up 5.3%) 
• Rockvale, TN: $469,257 (Up 3.8%)
• Christiana, TN: $416.422 (Up 2.8%)
• Murfreesboro, TN: $414,947 (Up 2.4%) 

• 37127 Zip Code: $410,631 (Up 2.3%) 
• 37129 Zip Code: $430,769 (Up 2.8%) 
• 37128 Zip Code: $433,039 (Up 2.3%) 
• 37130 Zip Code: $362,731 (Up 1.5%)

• Smyrna, TN: $394,124 (Up 1.5%)
• LaVergne, TN: 340,339 (Up 0.3%)