MURFREESBORO, TN – Continued changes in Tennessee’s job market are expected to smooth out when the state releases its next unemployment report later this month. The Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development says seasonal trends—including school breaks during the summer—played a major role in the rise in jobless rates seen across the state in July.

Seasonal Shifts and College Town Impact - Unemployment figures for August are set to be released toward the end of September, and the new numbers may reflect a brighter outlook. Historically, August sees a decrease in unemployment, particularly in college towns like Murfreesboro, home to Middle Tennessee State University. When students return to class, many also return to part-time jobs, boosting local employment numbers.

Still, because MTSU’s fall semester began late in August, on the 25th, the full effect of returning students may not be evident until September’s data is released. Communities with large student populations—20,000 to 25,000 or more—can play an outsized role in local employment reports.

Rutherford County Among Lowest Jobless Rates - In July, Rutherford County ranked eighth among the state’s top ten counties with the lowest unemployment, reporting 3.7%. That matched Blount County and Cannon County, ranked ninth and tenth, respectively. Sevier County posted the lowest jobless rate at 3.3%, followed by Cheatham at 3.4% and Wilson at 3.6%.

Locally, unemployment ticked upward from June to July. Murfreesboro and LaVergne both climbed from 3.5% to 3.8%. Smyrna’s rate moved from 3.3% to 3.5%.

Data Revisions and Adjustments - The most recent July numbers for 2025 have not yet been revised. Revisions are a routine part of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) process, incorporating more comprehensive data from businesses and government agencies. As an example, in July 2024, Smyrna’s unemployment rate was initially reported at 3.2% but later revised to 2.9%. That same year, Murfreesboro’s July figure was adjusted from 3.1% to 2.9%, and LaVergne’s was updated from 3.2% to 3.0%.

Seasonal adjustments are especially common in communities with universities, where student departures in summer and returns in late August can distort the short-term data.

Tennessee’s Statewide Picture - At the state level, Tennessee’s unemployment rate for July 2025 was initially released as 4.4%. However, once seasonally adjusted, the rate dropped significantly to 3.6%. If a similar adjustment were applied to Rutherford County, its July rate could move from the reported 3.7% down to around 3.0%.

Overall, unemployment rates increased from June to July in 92 of Tennessee’s 95 counties, while three counties remained unchanged.

The Department of Labor will release August unemployment data later this month, which is expected to show improvement as seasonal and student-related employment shifts balance out.